The Doomsday is on Friday 13 November 2026

[mstislavl]

EMBO reports 9, 8, 703–708 (2008)
doi:10.1038/embor.2008.138
AOP Published online: 18 July 2008

'Finitics'. A plea for biological realism

Ladislav Ková
Ladislav Ková is Professor of Biochemistry at Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovakia.

The history of human thought can be separated into two periods: before Darwin (BD) and after Darwin (AD). The former period covers 150,000 years of the existence of modern humans; the latter a thousand times less. Yet, as this paper argues, the burden of pre-Darwinian thinking continues to prevent us from realistically appreciating the present evolutionary stage of the human species. Therefore, I suggest that it might be time to substitute our current illusions, either about a bright future or imminent doomsday for humanity, with a radical Darwinian alternative.

...Von Foerster and colleagues extrapolated the hyperbolic curve of human population growth and indicated that the population should reach infinity and the doubling time zero on Friday 13 November 2026: a date they dramatically called "doomsday" (von Foerster et al, 1960)

http://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v9/n8/full/embor2008138.html

Comments

Moral

[gerasirdis.livejournal.com]

>...Von Foerster and colleagues extrapolated
>the hyperbolic curve of human population
>growth and indicated that the population
>should reach infinity and the doubling time
>zero on Friday 13 November 2026: a date they
>dramatically called "doomsday" (von Foerster
>et al, 1960)
And the moral of the story is: you must resist the temptation to use hyperbolic curve to extrapolate. MUST RESIST!!! Control your urge to use hyperbolic curve! One might even consider joining HCUA (hyperbolic curve users anonymous)...

[mstislavl]

мне другое интересней: формулировка того, что в цивилизованном обществе одновременно повышается порог удовольствия и понижается порог страдания. просто, но верно.

и про скорую singularity я не верю, для неограниченного развития технологий нужны неограниченные материальные ресурсы. тем временем запасы редкоземельных металлов, например, скоро подойдут к концу.